Ted Cruz is the most underrated candidate in the 2016 field

These very connected and experienced political columnists predict Ted Cruz will be a real contender in 2016.

Click here to read the full February 13, 2015 Washington Post column that is quoted in part below.

A prominent Republican consultant — who isn’t working for any of the 2016 presidential candidates and who has been right more times than I can count — said something that shocked me when we had lunch recently. He said that Texas Sen. Ted Cruz had roughly the same odds of becoming the Republican presidential nominee as former Florida governor Jeb Bush.

ted at freedom summit

Jaw-dropper, right? After all, the conventional wisdom is that Bush, the son and brother of presidents, is the frontrunner to be the Republican standard-bearer, while Cruz, a conservative’s conservative, is a factor, sure, but not someone who could actually win the nomination.

How, I asked this guy, could he say such a thing? He explained it this way.

Think of the Republican primary field as a series of lanes. In this race, there are four of them: Establishment, Tea Party, Social Conservative and Libertarian. The four lanes are not of equal size:  Establishment is the biggest followed by Tea Party, Social Conservative and then Libertarian. (I could be convinced that Libertarian is slightly larger than Social Conservative, but it’s close.)

Obviously the fight for the top spot in the Establishment lane is very crowded, with Bush and possibly Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker leading at the moment. Ditto the Social Conservative lane with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Ben Carson and Rick Santorum all pushing hard there. The Libertarian lane is all Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul’s but, as I noted above, it’s still not that big.

Which leaves the Tea Party lane, which is both relatively large and entirely Cruz’s. While Paul looked as though he might try to fight Cruz for supremacy in that lane at one time, it’s clear from his recent moves that the Kentucky senator is trying to become a player in a bunch of lanes, including Social Conservative and Establishment.

So, Cruz is, without question, the dominant figure in the Tea Party lane. What that means — particularly in the early stages of the primary process in places like Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina — is that he will likely be able to win, place or show repeatedly, wracking up enough strong-ish performances to keep going even as the Establishment lane and the Social Conservative lane begin to thin out. (Cruz’s ability to raise money, which remains a question, is less important for him than it is for other candidates — especially those in the Establishment lane. His people are going to be for him no matter how much — or little — communicating he does with them.)

Review of GOP Fields says “Expect Cruz to Stun”

Click here to read the complete analysis of the Republicans running for President written by Monica Crowley for the Washington Times, published February 4, 2015.

Game on, 2016.

These are early days, and the race is a marathon, not a sprint. But running for president is like competing on “American Idol.” The successful candidate must not just be a serious thinker with a real record of accomplishment but someone who connects with ordinary voters. He or she must be a 21st century leader who understands that America hangs by a thread, and that time to save her is short. The GOP — and America — need a fighter.

This brings us to the candidate most likely to shatter all conventional wisdom: Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. Unlike Messrs. Bush, Christie and Rubio, Mr. Cruz doesn’t have to prove himself to the base — or make anything up to them. Because of his unflinching willingness to really fight for core conservative principles, from limited government to fiscal responsibility, he’s a rock star who will drive votes. Whether it’s enough to carry him to the nomination — and to raise big money — remains to be seen, but I expect he’ll stun a lot of folks when voting actually begins.